The rather artificial hierarchy provided here is structures like Maslow's hierarch of needs.

I. Human Instincts - The Individual level [ Is war a function of human nature? ]

A. Social Darwinism

- Nazi Germany

- Does the gene pool change as a result of warfare?

- Survival (personal fitness - as in survival of the fittest)

- Inclusive Fitness=- Personal Fitness + Kinship component

- Kinship groups with a predisposition towards altruism will tend to survive better than a tribe of individuals.

- Has the individual calculus of war changes?

- In 1700 life expectancy was quite short - 35 years

To go off to war at 18-19 was not as great a risk!

- The value of human life was self-perceived much differently back then.

- Do social institutions evolve?

B. Territorial Imperative

- Ardrey & territory [elevators & PRT]

- territorial marking

- Sovereignty

- Peace of Westphalia 1648

- ended thirty Years war between major European Powers

- Right of National self-determination

- W. Wilson & Treaty of Versailles

- Security Dilemma

- In order for nations to remain sovereign, they must be protected from external invasion.

- In order to be protected by an 'authority' a nation must give up its sovereignty in decisions of national security.

- It is a dilemma to have to give something up in order to save it!

C. Aggression

- is war a biological urge ?

- submissive behaviors

- Warfare is not constant - why not

- [Swiss - classic Ci vis Pacem, Para Bellum.]

- many generations without war

D. Power seeking behavior

- biological 'high'

- the Great Man/Great General hypothesis {a la Stoessinger}

II. Human Needs

A. Economic Factors

1. Resources

a. Oil

- Chaco War

- Persian Gulf

b. Gold/Precious Metals & Minerals

c. water

d. Arable soil

e. Protein deficiency ???!!!

f. Population pressure

g. Food ???

2. The distribution of those resources

a. equity

b. social cleavages

populations submerged (Lithuanians !!)

populations divided (Kurds)

populations denied (South Africa)

3. The Economic organization of society

A. Imperialism

- declining rate of profit

- search for markets and raw materials

- economic competition in less developed world will lead to conflict.

B. Neo-Imperialism

i.e Latin American Land Practices

C. Free Trade

- comparative advantage

- interdependence raises costs of conflict & reduces probability of war

III Human Values

1. Religion

a. touted as the greatest cause of war

b Name one!

Northern Ireland No

Arab-Israeli No

Iran Possibly

Crusades Not the 1st

Possibly others

Spanish conquest No

2. The value of human life

Life expectancy 35 years & no future

versus life exp. of 75 years and a modest chance at social mobility

3. Culture of violence

Richardson/Toynbee war-weariness

4.

IV Human Thoughts

A. Perception

1. Language - the tower of Babel

Esperanto & Volapuk

the two languages couldn't agree on which was best

- and Volapuk eventually fell apart after an internal dispute over grammar

2. Cognition

- Selective perception

- Mirror Imaging

- Cognitive Dissonance

3. Relative deprivation

- expectations not met

- sudden drop in needs acquisition

4. Historical Patterns

Soviet and Israeli concerns for safe borders

(or is this territoriality cropping up)

B. Calculation

1. Rational Decision

- Strike while the advantage is with you

WWI, WWII,

- Strike before you loss your 'window of opportunity'

- Arms Races

- success begets adventurism

- as acquired wealth lowers costs, adventurism becomes more acceptable

Saddam Hussein & the Persian Gulf

2. Belief in a swift victory

WWI, WWII, Persian Gulf

3. Deathwatch

Russia invades Sweden in 1700 at death of ??

Sweden returns the complement in 1741.

Concern over Tito's death in Yugoslavia in 1981-82 (?)

Soviet/Russian concerns about Castro & Cuba

4. Scapegoat wars

Domestic conflict causes leaders to seek diversion mechanisms

- Falkands/Malvinas

IV Human Organization

A. The Structure of the International System

1. Polarity

2. Polarization

3.

B. Long Cycles

Global Power Dates Major War Challenger

Portuguese 1494-1580 Italian Wars (1494-1516) (Spain ?)

War of the Holy League (1511-1514)

Dutch 1581-1688 Spanish Wars (1581-1609) Spain

War of the Armada(1585-1604)

British I 1689-1791 Wars of Louis XIV (1688-1713) France

War of Spanish Succession (1701-1713)

British II 1792-1913 Napoleonic (1792-1815) France

US 1914- (1945?)- WWI, WWII Types of Wars Germany/(SU?)

War Experienced by:

War Activity by: Global Powers Non-Global Powers

Global Powers Global (Balance-of- Police Actions

Power) Wars

Non-Global Powers Nationalist Wars Regional & Local

Disorders

Main themes - Offense vs. Defense

- Change in political structures as a result of technological change.

- Loss of strength gradient

Pre-history

1. Fire

2. Bones, sticks, and rocks

3. the wall

- smaller # of defenders versus attackers

- wait prepared

- this made agriculture "cost-effective"

4. Spear, ax, sword

5. Shield, armor

Greeks

1. Military discipline

- allowed for protection on the right

- made attacks predictable

The ability to march and maneuver offset this.

Roman Empire

1. Professional soldier

2. discipline

3. Mobility

4. Prohibited castles

5. increase in horsemanship

6. Stirrups (year 700s ??)

7. Rome allowed castles

8. height

9. fortress Europe

Medieval

1. Cannon

- Constantinople 1453

2.

- finish Quester pp84-

Seapower

- The Galley had been the mainstay of naval weaponry for 2000 years ramming and boarding the traditional maneuver

- Cannon changed this.

up to 40% of the firepower could be used at one time.

- Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads. - This led to the need for supply bases (ports) which led to a

further rash of colonization in the late 1800's

The Modern Era - WWI & WWII

- The trench (Am. Civil War) - Machine gun (WWII)- defensive

- Tank (WWI)

- The Airplane (WWI & WWII)

- Radar

- Helicopter (Vietnam)

- Rocket/missile (WWII)

- Nuclear weapons (WWII)

- ???

Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative)

The basics of anti-ballistic missile defense

Time Altitude

- Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km

- Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs 1100 - 110 km

- Midcourse Phase

- Reentry Phase

Type of SDI systems

Energy Weapons

1. Lasers

2. Particle Beams

Space bases kinetic energy weapons

1. Rail guns

2. Interceptors

Ground based ABM systems 1. ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor Subsystem)

2. HEDI (High Endoatmospheric Defense Interceptor)

The magnitude of the support effort

1. # of satellites

- since effective range of most systems is 1000km

satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore on station only 5% of the time 24000/1000 = 24 satellites for 100% coverage 2. If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles

(or 1400 deployed MIRVs) this means 240 satellites